Kolmogorov Conditionalizers Can Be Dutch Booked (If and Only If They Are Evidentially Uncertain) (w/ Snow Zhang). Review of Symbolic Logic (2022).
A vexing question in Bayesian epistemology is how an agent should update on evidence which she assigned zero prior credence. Some theorists have suggested that the agent should update by Kolmogorov conditionalization, a norm based on Kolmogorov's theory of regular conditional distributions. However, it turns out that in some situations, a Kolmogorov conditionalizer will plan to always assign a posterior credence of zero to the evidence she learns. Intuitively, such a plan is irrational and easily Dutch bookable. In this paper, we propose a revised norm, Kolmogorov-Blackwell conditionalization, which avoids this problem. We prove a Dutch book theorem and converse Dutch book theorem for this revised norm, and relate our results to Rescorla (2018).
Examining the Quantum Principal Principle. Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science (2021).
Earman (2018) has recently argued that the Principal Principle, a principle of rationality connecting objective chance and credence, is a theorem of quantum probability theory. This paper begins by critiquing Earman's argument; while Earman shows a certain principle follows from appropriate 'quantum' analogues of probabilism and conditionalization, that principle does not correspond to the Principal Principle. I then offer a positive proposal for how to formulate the Principal Principle in this quantum setting. I show that, while it not a theorem, the principle is intuitively plausible, and admits several important applications, including to the learning of unknown quantum states.
You Say You Want a Revolution: Two Notions of Probabilistic Independence. Philosophical Studies (2021).
The Borel-Kolmogorov Paradox Is Your Paradox Too (w/ Snow Zhang). Philosophy of Science (2021).
Clarifying the New Problem for Quantum Mechanics: Reply to Vaidman. Foundations of Physics (2021).
I respond to Lev Vaidman's recent criticisms of my paper "A New Problem for Quantum Mechanics".
A New Problem for Quantum Mechanics. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science (forthcoming).
Jeffrey Meets Kolmogorov (w/ Snow Zhang). Journal of Philosophical Logic (2020).
Selected Works In Progress
[Redacted for review]
A paper on the epistemology of chance [Email me for a draft]
A paper on quantum updating and accuracy (w/ Jer Steeger) [Email me for a draft]